by Atlanta Motor Speedway has been a fixture on the NASCAR schedule since 1960. On Sunday, it will host the first of two NASCAR races in Atlanta in 2023 during the Cup Series schedule. The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET on the 2023 Ambetter Health 400 and all eyes will be on the three Hendrick Motorsports teams that were penalized by NASCAR last week after illegal modifications were found during a post-race inspection in Phoenix. William Byron, Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman each got 100 points and 10 playoff points.
Byron is posting back-to-back wins and won the spring race in Atlanta last season, so it’s no surprise that he’s the 9-1 favorite in the 2023 Ambetter Health 400 odds. Larson is 10-1 tied with Kyle Busch, while Ross Chastain and Joey Logano are 11-1 in the 2023 NASCAR at Atlanta odds. Before you search the 2023 Ambetter Health 400 starting lineup and make predictions for 2023 NASCAR in Atlanta, see the latest 2023 Ambetter Health 400 picks from SportsLine’s proven NASCAR model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates each race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure’s model is off to a red-hot start this season, racking up Martin Truex Jr.’s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano’s Duel win (8-1) and Kyle Busch’s Fontana win (10-1) . It also impressively took five wins from Kyle Larson during its historic 2021 season. All told, the model has racked up a whopping nine winners since 2021. Anyone who followed suit on those NASCAR picks saw huge payoffs.
Now the model simulated the 2023 Ambetter Health 400 10,000 times. To see the full projected NASCAR standings for 2023 in Atlanta, visit SportsLine.
Top 2023 Ambitter Health 400 Predictions
One surprise: The model ranks high on Martin Truex Jr., even though he’s a 22-1 long shot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Atlanta odds. He is a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 42-year-old made his 625th NASCAR Cup Series start in Phoenix last week, but he’s still going strong. Truex is sixth in the NASCAR standings after finishing 17th or better in the first four races, leading laps in two of those events.
Toyota hasn’t been able to match Chevrolet’s speed so far in 2023, but with the parity created by the Next-Gen Car, it’s only a matter of time before Joe Gibbs Racing and the rest of the Camrys dial it in. Truex is a 31-time NASCAR Cup Series winner, and while he’s never made it to victory lane in Atlanta, he’s knocking on the door. Truex has finished 11th or better in his last 10 starts on the 1.5-mile oval, leading in six of those races. See who else you can support at SportsLine.
And a huge shock: William Byron, the Vegas favorite at 9-1, stumbles big and fails to crack the top five. There are much better values in the 2023 Ambetter Health 400 starting lineup. Byron won the spring race in Atlanta last season and is posting back-to-back wins including a win on a 1.5 mile oval (Las Vegas) so it’s no surprise he is the favourite.
However, tire failure was a problem in Atlanta after the road surface was resurfaced during the off-season and additional adjustments mean the track will likely run differently again. Byron finished 30th after crashing in the summer race and finished 17th or worse in five of his seven career Cup starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.
How to make NASCAR 2023 at Atlanta picks
The model also targets another driver with a 2023 NASCAR Atlana chance of 20-1 or more to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who supports these drivers can make it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks on SportsLine.
So who will win the 2023 Ambetter Health 400? And which long shots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Atlanta odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Atlanta NASCAR leaderboard, all from the model already named winners at the Clash, Duel and Pala Casino 400.
2023 Ambetter Health 400 odds, lineup
See the full 2023 Ambetter Health 400 picks on SportsLine
William Byron 9-1
Kyle Larson 10-1
Kyle Busch 10-1
Ross Chastain 11-1
Joey Logano 11-1
Christopher Bell 12-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Brad Keselowski 17-1
Alex Bowman 18-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20-1
Bubba Wallace 20-1
Chris Buscher 20-1
Kevin Harvik 20-1
Daniel Suarez 22-1
Martin Truex Jr. 22-1
Aric Almirola 25-1
Tyler Reddick 25-1
Chase Briscoe 28-1
Austin Cindric 28-1
Austin Dillon 30-1
Josh Berry 35-1
Eric Jones 35-1
Corey Lajoie 45-1
Ryan Preece 50-1
Todd Gilliland 50-1
Michael McDowell 50-1
Noah Gragson 50-1
A. J. Allmendinger 50-1
Justin Haley 60-1
Ty Gibbs 60-1
Harrison Burton 65-1
Ty Dillon 250-1
BJ McLeod 1000-1
CodyWare 1000-1
JJ Yeley 1000-1
